Comments made today by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet once again point to a likely interest rate increase when the ECB meets next week to deliver its July statement. Inflation did hold steady in June but it remains well above the Bank’s inflation rate target.
“We are strongly determined to secure that inflation expectation remain firmly in-line (with our expectations),” ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet told the European Parliament’s economic and monetary affairs committee. “The current monetary policy is accommodative and … as I said we are in a state of strong vigilance,” he said.
The phrase “strong vigilance” has regularly been deployed to signal a rate hike in the past.
The number of new applications for unemployment benefits declined by only 1,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 428,000 last week. The fact that new claimants remained basically unchanged for the week provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is failing to make inroads on improving employment.
In May, only 54,000 new jobs were added compared to an average of 220,000 new jobs per month for the previous three months. The decline has caused the unemployment rate to climb to 9.1 percent.
Time to vote. The market appears poised with their fingers on the sell button. Sell, sell, sell, seems to be the final solution on Prime Minister Papandreou’s austerity measures passing. There is no official set time for the vote and it only requires a simple majority of present members of parliament to pass.
A successful outcome would clear the way for the disbursement of the EU/IMF €12b loan tranche next month. While this would likely bring some near-term relief, the markets will focus on the country’s 2012 funding schedule and on the ongoing negotiations of a debt exchange program.
With the markets grappling with the French/Greek roll-over plan, ECB member Stark, this morning, has already put cold water on that initiative. He no
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At least that’s what it seems like as the data continues to come in showing slower growth around the globe. But indeed it is growth and that is something that can’t be overlooked. Various PMI data from around the globe has showed slowing manufacturing as demand has weakened in light of other economic conditions.
However, we are coming off of the best 4-day rally in stocks that we have seen since before QE2 started back in September and the mood has been decidedly risk-on after the Greek crisis was temporarily put to bed. All things considered, US stocks are looking very attractive at these levels and as long as we can avoid a major catastrophe (such as the political battle over the US debt ceiling), then risk sentiment should improve.
However, today seems a little indifferent with markets flat to slightly lower ahead of the long Fourth of July weekend here in the US. As Read more…
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The US Dollar is lower against nearly all of its peers this morning as the Greek debt saga again steals the spotlight. Investors have been generally encouraged by news that the Greek Parliament passed they hotly debated austerity measures needed to secure funding for July, but the relief has been tempered by escalating protests in Athens. Nevertheless, global financial markets have cheered the developments as a success in the near term and both commodities and equities are in the black. Gaining risk sentiment is weighing on the dollar as investors seek the higher yields of currencies from the AUD to the ZAR. The market took note of US pending home sales data this morning, which registered better than expected at 8.2% m/m versus the 3.0% gain expected.
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